Showing posts with label SBP Policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SBP Policy. Show all posts

Monday, 17 October 2011

Rate spread and SBP’s task By Muhammad Yaqub


COMMERCIAL banks play a key role in the mobilisation of financial savings and the financing of economic activity through financial intermediation between savers and borrowers.
Unlike other businesses, commercial banks hold other people’s money and their operations have a direct bearing on the rate of return and safety and liquidity of funds placed at their disposal as deposits by the general
public.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) was created, inter alia, to establish a regulatory and supervisory framework to ensure soundness of the banking practices, to provide protection to depositors’ interests and to regulate the banks’ lending business
in line with national economic priorities.
To enable it to undertake these regulatory functions, the SBP was given wide powers in the SBP Act, the Banking Companies Ordinance and some other legislation.
In fulfilling its regulatory responsibilities, the SBP can frame rules and regulations to ensure good corporate governance and enforce the prudential regulations through onsite and offsite supervision. One of the responsibilities of the SBP is to make sure that banks do not exploit the depositors or the borrowers and earn profit on their equity through legitimate business practices.
The difference between a bank’s average rate of return on deposits and the average rate of interest on lending is called ‘interest rate spread’. The rate spread not only determines the profitability of banks but also indicates the efficiency, competitiveness and soundness of the banking system. The normal rate spread is three to five per cent in most of the countries where banking business is run on an efficient basis.
During the last decade, the rate spread has gone up substantially making banking one of the most profitable businesses in Pakistan. According to the SBP publications, the spread between the weighted average deposit and lending rates of all banks has increased from 4.63 per cent in June, 2003 to 8.90 per cent in July, 2011.
The combined profits before tax of all the banks rose from Rs4.5bn in 2000 to Rs80.7bn in 2009. Profits after tax changed from a loss of Rs2.8bn to a gain of Rs54.4bn during the same period.
The abnormal rise in the rate spread and profitability of banks means that the depositors or the borrowers or both have been at the losing end, and so has the economy.
The high spread is an indicator of lack of competition in the banking system, or a systematic collision among the banks and a failure of the regulatory authorities to discharge their statutory responsibilities. Privatisation of banks had necessitated a stronger and not a weaker or timid central bank. Similarly, a free-enterprise system requires a stronger and not a weaker regulatory framework.
The large interest spread has implications for saving, investment, income distribution, rate of economic growth and the conduct of monetary policy in addition to its adverse effects on individual savers and borrowers.
The country has recorded a rate of inflation of over 15 per cent per year for the last several years. A rate of return on savings lower than the rate of inflation implies a negative real rate of return on savings.
For example, if the banks give an average return of five per cent on deposits in the context of an inflation rate of 15 per cent, the savers will annually lose 10 per cent of the purchasing power of their savings held in banks. Whatever amount people can save they will be better off in keeping it in real assets, or even not saving it at all, rather than to keep it in banks.
However, given the need to save for rainy days, the liquidity preference of people and lack of opportunities to hold their saving in other instruments, most of them end up in keeping their savings in bank accounts even at a negative real rate of return.
Moreover, taking advantage of the Sharia’s prohibition of fixed return on savings, banks encourage small savers to keep their saving either in interest-free accounts or in profit and loss accounts whose return is not predetermined At the end of the period, banks arbitrarily decide a rate of return on such deposits at their discretion. On the other hand, banks do not follow the Sharia injunction on the asset side and mostly use the deposits in lending them on fixed rates of interest to borrowers.
The cover of Sharia injunctions and the free-enterprise system is used by banks for the exploitation of small savers, and the SBP is letting it happen. In such a situation, it is no wonder that Pakistan’s rate of saving has been declining and is one of the lowest among the countries of the region.
Another effect of these banking practices is that the banking system has become an instrument of transfer of resources from the small savers to the rich borrowers, including some wilful defaulters. Lower saving rate, inequitable distribution of income, wilful loan defaults and inefficiency of investment in turn retard the rate of economic growth.
Equally importantly, the wide rate spread stands in the way of implementation of a pro-growth and effective monetary policy.
Monetary policy signals are usually transmitted to the market through changes in interest rates by the central bank.
If banks sit on a large cushion of a wide rate spread, the signals coming out of the SBP for change of direction in the monetary policy can easily be blunted by partial use of this cushion by the banks.
The SBP needs to review the existing rate spread with a view to taking measures to bring it down to a normal range. If the corridors of power in the SBP are reluctant to move believing that the SBP has no such power, they are well advised to dust off the past record of the SBP and re-read the banking laws more carefully.
The writer is a former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.

Sunday, 9 October 2011

Huge discount rate cut surprises market

KARACHI, Oct 8: The State Bank on Saturday threw a pleasant surprise by chopping off its policy rate by 150bps above the market expectations, but analysts critical about the huge cut in view of changing of base-year to show declining inflationary trend.

The SBP brought down the discount rate to 12 per cent for October-November from 13.5 per cent. However most of the market experts were anticipating a cut of 50 basis points.
It was expected that the SBP would adopt a strategy of gradual decrease in the rates to avoid any upheaval in the economy. In July 2011 the discount rate was cut by 50 basis points after keeping it on the higher side since 2008 to fight double-digit inflation.
The government failing to rope in price hike has recently changed the base year for calculating inflation to 2008, the year when average inflation was 20 per cent.
Some analysts think the SBP move will energise the economy.
“This surprising cut suggests that the central bank is focusing on economic growth at a time when IMF support is not there,” said Mohammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities.
He said the decision may put some pressure on the rupee while equity and bonds would rally.
The business community welcoming the move said that it was long over due. “I must say it is positive and will definitely stir economic growth while the 150bps cut in policy rate may translate in two per cent decline in lending rate to corporate
sector,” said Saleem Parekh, former chairman SITE Association.
He added that it would also encourage long-term investment, which is almost nil at this moment.
The business community has been criticising the State Bank to keep such a high interest rate that did not allow the private sector to borrow for long term planning or expansion of existing units.
For some analysts the government would be the biggest beneficiary of this low interest rate since it has been the biggest borrower for last three years from the banking system.
Only last year the government made record borrowing of Rs598 billion from the scheduled banks and Rs247 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal 2012.
“First the government is the real beneficiary and secondly the lower inflation is not as low as being shown because the base-year has been changed,” said Syed Shahid Iqbal, a money market expert.
However, he said the overall situation might see some relaxation for private sector provided the government reduces its borrowing.
The State Bank expected lower GDP growth and also expressed concern over exports. “The likelihood of falling short of the annual GDP growth target has increased due to damaging impact of recent flood in Sindh,” it said.
“The rapidly deteriorating global economic conditions, especially in Pakistan’s export-destination countries, do not provide much confidence either,” said the SBP
Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/huge-discount-rate-cut-surprises-market.html


Also View http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/08/sbp-cuts-key-policy-rate-by-150-bps-to-12-pc.html for SBP cuts key policy rate by 150 bps to 12 pc