Monday 10 October 2011

Egypt forces clash with Copt protesters, 24 dead


CAIRO: A curfew was imposed overnight in Egypt’s capital after 24 people, mostly Coptic Christians, died in clashes with security forces in the deadliest violence since President Hosni Mubarak’s fall.
More then 200 people were injured in fighting that erupted during a protest by Copts on Sunday, prompting a curfew in central Cairo, said official statements broadcast on public television.
At least five of the dead were mown down by a speeding army vehicle, a priest from the minority Coptic community said, while an AFP correspondent saw other bodies with gunshot wounds.
Some activists blamed government-backed provocation for the bloodshed which has triggered fears of worsening sectarian strife.
Prime Minister Essam Sharaf appealed for Egypt’s Muslims and Christians “not to give in to sedition because it is a fire which burns up everybody”.
As the military police gave assurances that calm had returned to the capital, Sharaf warned on public television that Egypt was “in danger” following the most serious clashes since Mubarak was ousted in February.
Sharaf, appointed by the military council that took power after mass protests led to Mubarak’s downfall, heads a caretaker government ahead of elections the council has pledged will be democratic.
A 2:00 am (0000 GMT) to 7:00 am curfew was declared in the area from Maspero to Abbassiya square, while security was stepped up around parliament and other official buildings in central Cairo.
“These events have brought us backwards… instead of moving forward to construct a modern state on a healthy democratic basis,” Sharaf said.
The clashes broke out during a demonstration in the Maspero district on the Nile, an AFP correspondent said after counting bodies at a Coptic hospital.
Amid scenes of mayhem at the hospital which was filled with grieving relatives, a priest named Daud told AFP at least five of those killed were mowed down by an army vehicle.
“Here is the brain” of one of them, he said, pointing to white matter in a plastic bag next to the body and disfigured face of a dead man. “Wael, wake up my dear Wael. Speak to me,” sobbed his sister in despair.
Other bodies bore gunshot wounds.
State television reported that three soldiers were shot dead and dozens of their comrades wounded as angry Copts wielding batons protested over the burning last month of a church in Aswan, southern Egypt.
“They fired at my colleague. He was standing next to me  Christians, sons of dogs,” one wounded soldier said on the television.
Later Sunday night, hundreds of Muslims and Coptic Christians exchanged blows and threw stones at the hospital treating the wounded from the earlier clashes, an AFP journalist witnessed.
The hospital morgue housed the bodies of those killed.
Some 200 to 300 protesters marched on the hospital to meet up with several hundred Christians already gathered there, including family members of the dead and wounded.
Several cars were set on fire in a wide street next to the hospital, and protesters were tapping the cars to make petrol bombs.
Users of social networking sites such as Twitter said the earlier clashes were provoked by thugs at the scene, while state television was accused of fanning anti-Coptic sentiment.
The prime minister said on his Facebook page, “What is taking place are not clashes between Muslims and Christians but attempts to provoke chaos and dissent.”
The protesters clashed with anti-riot police and soldiers guarding the state television building, after thousands took part in a protest march from the Shobra district.
A standoff degenerated as the demonstrators started hurling stones and set fire to two cars, an AFP correspondent said. The television channel said that an army vehicle was burnt.
Security forces fired into the air to disperse the crowd, and dozens of people fled.
“Down with the marshal,” the demonstrators chanted on the march to Maspero, referring to Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, who heads the military council.
Copts complain of systematic discrimination, but since Mubarak’s fall, tensions have also mounted between the military — initially hailed for not siding with Mubarak – and groups that spearheaded the revolt, which say the army is reluctant to carry out genuine reforms.
Sectarian clashes are frequent in Egypt, where the Coptic minority, which makes up about 10 percent of the Muslim-majority country’s 80 million people, has often been the target of attacks.
Hundreds of Copts took part in a protest last Tuesday outside the state television building over the September 30 burning of a church in the southern province of Aswan, demanding that its governor be sacked.
The church in Merinab village was attacked after governor Mustafa al-Seyyed was reported as saying Copts had built it without the required planning permission, according to state television.
The caretaker cabinet has pledged to reopen closed churches and ease church building restrictions.

Ex-naval chief Bokhari named to head NAB


ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari named on Sunday Admiral (retd) Agha Fasih Bokhari, former chief of Pakistan Navy, as chairman of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to fill the office lying vacant for several months and make the country’s premier accountability organisation functional.
The nomination of Admiral Bokhari surprised many observers in the capital because some other persons were reportedly being considered for the post. The NAB became dysfunctional on July 20 on the orders of the Supreme Court which said that the organisation could not function in the absence of a chairman.
“President Zardari has nominated Admiral Bokhari and sent a summary to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani for his appointment as NAB chairman,” President’s Spokesman Farhatullah Babar said.
“The president also sent a letter to Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan for consultation as required in the NAB ordinance,” he said. Sources said the law ministry had sent a summary nominating Admiral Bokhari for the post to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani a few days ago.
The prime minister accepted the summary and forwarded it to the president for approval. Under the NAB ordinance and directives of the apex court, the government has to consult the leader of opposition over the appointment of NAB’s chairman.
The leader of opposition has not taken any decision on the issue, but his party’s spokesman Mushahidullah said the opposition party would not accept the decision because NAB’s chairman should be a non-political person.
He also levelled allegations of corruption against the retired admiral. However, he later withdrew the allegations and said he had confused his name with that of another former Navel Chief.
The PML-N spokesman said his party’s leadership would hold a meeting to discuss the nomination.
He did not confirm that Chaudhry Nisar had received a letter from the president in this regard and said that his party would respond in accordance with the constitution.
It may be mentioned that the leader of opposition had rejected the name of Justice (retd) Syed Deedar Shah for the post but despite that the government appointed him as NAB chairman in October 2010. But three months later Justice (retd) Shah was removed by the Supreme Court which said he had been appointed without ‘meaningful’ consultations with the opposition.
Earlier, the government was considering the names of recently retired judges of the Supreme Court, Justice Javed Iqbal, Justice Sardar Raza Khan and former chief justice (retd) Abdul Hameed Dogar and Punjab Governor Latif Khosa for the office.
But all these names were dropped in favour of Admiral (retd) Fasih Bokhari who retired as four star naval officer after serving as Chief of Naval Staff from 1997 to 1999.
He is a graduate of the French Naval War College and held several high posts in the navy.
The post of NAB chairman has been lying vacant since the removal of Deedar Hussain Shah in March this year.
NAB suspended its operations on July 20 after the expiry of the 30-day deadline given to the government by the Supreme Court to either appoint a chairman or wind up the organisation. The government ignored the deadline and pleaded in the apex court that it could not appoint NAB chairman till the apex court decided its petition seeking a review of the removal of Justice Shah.
The Supreme Court rejected the government’s plea and ordered that its June 21 judgment would prevail (under which 30-day deadline was given).
On June 22, a three-member bench comprising Justice Javed Iqbal, Justice Khilji Arif Hussain and Justice Asif Saeed Khan Khosa, disposed of a constitutional petition filed by Al-Jehad Trust challenging the appointment of Javed Kazi as deputy chairman of NAB and told the government that if it failed to fill the vacant posts of the bureau’s chairman and prosecutor general in one month, the deputy chairman would be barred from exercising the delegated powers of NAB chairman and the bureau would become non-functional.

Kurram groups sign accord to open key highway


PARACHINAR: After about three years, rival factions again signed a peace agreement here on Sunday to restore peace in Kurram Agency after the government promised to provide security on the main highway in the region.
Under the accord which was first signed in Murree in October 2008, the Thall-Parachinar road would be made safe for travel for local people and internally displaced people would be rehabilitated in their areas.
The Thall-Parachinar highway linking the Kurram agency with the rest of the country has remained closed since 2007.
Officials told reporters that elders of various tribes representing rival sects had again signed the Murree accord in the presence of members of a reconciliation jirga and political agent Syed Shahab Ali Shah.
The earlier agreement signed in Murree could not be implemented for unknown reasons despite the fact that rival tribes had fully backed it and even the leader of banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan Fazal Saeed had also endorsed it last year. Fazal Saeed later quit the TTP after developing differences with his chief Hakimullah Mehsud and set up his own faction and named it Tehrik-i-Taliban Islami.
Under the new deal, all tribal elders agreed to ban display of weapons in the area and impose Rs1 million fine for any violation of the agreement. They also agreed to rehabilitate all IDPs in their areas.
It was decided that local people would set up village peace committees to check movement of terrorists and trouble-makers.
The government has decided to set up checkpoints on the main highway from Chappari at the point of entry to Kurram Agency and Tari Mangal, a village adjacent to the Afghan border.
After deployment of forces on the highway, the administration, in cooperation with the Fata Disaster Management Authority, will start the work of rehabilitation of displaced persons in their respective areas.
According to official reports, over 30,000 families were displaced after violence erupted in November 2007.
According to unofficial reports over 3,000 people had been killed and hundreds others wounded in bloody clashes.
Residents said that deployment of army and paramilitary troops had been started and checkpoints were being set up. Sources said that elders of upper and lower Kurram had been insisting on deployment of army troops on the main road.
A delegation of Turi-Bangash tribe held meetings with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Barrister Masood Kausar and other stakeholders last week and demanded deployment of regular troops.
Sources said the delegation was told that forces were overstretched because of security situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other parts of Fata. However, the delegation was assured that army would monitor the situation and more troops would be dispatched at an appropriate time.
One tribal elder said that the deal’s guarantors, including the Haqqani group, would be kept out of the process and the responsibility of maintaining peace would lie with the tribes.
“All issues among the tribes would be settled in the light of the Murree declaration,” said the elder, adding that outsiders, including Taliban groups, now had nothing to do with the matter.
Meanwhile, two paramilitary soldiers were kidnapped from Bagun in lower Kurram on Saturday, officials said. They said that they were going from Thall Garrison to Alizai Fort in a private car when gunmen kidnapped them and shifted to an unknown location. No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.

Asian shares rise after France-Germany agreement


HONG KONG: Asian shares began Monday on a high after France and Germany said they had agreed a plan to support Europe's banks, while US jobs data also provided some lift.
However dealers remained cautious after Wall Street finished last week with a loss and Fitch downgraded the debt ratings of Italy and Spain.
Hong Kong gained 0.66 percent in the first few minutes, Sydney gained 1.20 percent, Seoul was 1.10 percent higher and Shanghai, which was closed last week for the Golden Week holiday, was 0.16 percent up.
Tokyo and Taipei were closed for public holidays.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel put on a united front Sunday and vowed after talks in Berlin a response to Europe's debt crisis within weeks.
Without announcing concrete details, Sarkozy said there would be "lasting, global and quick responses before the end of the month", amid rampant fears of a crippling credit crunch.
The announcement comes a few weeks ahead of a G20 summit in Cannes, and Sarkozy said Europe must "arrive at the (meeting) united and with the problems resolved".
It also came amid concerns that France and Germany, the two main powerhouses of the eurozone, were at odds over the best way to recapitalise the region's banks.
Germany, the effective eurozone paymaster, wants banks that are under pressure to turn to investors for funds before appealing for national or European cash.
It wants the EU's 440-billion-euro ($589-billion) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund to intervene only as a last resort.
But France, fearful of losing its top-notch AAA credit rating, would rather dip into European funds than its own coffers.
However, Sarkozy said Sunday that "agreement is complete".
"An economy is not prosperous without stable and reliable banks," he told reporters after the talks.
Merkel also said the two sides had "decided on doing what is necessary to recapitalise (the) banks in order to assure the granting of credit to the economy".
Also on Sunday, Belgium and Luxembourg said they had reached a deal to dismantle troubled bank Dexia, the first victim of the eurozone crisis.
Belgium's finance minister said Brussels had, in accordance with French wishes, agreed to guarantee 60 percent of the so-called "bad bank" assets, compared with 36.5 percent for France and 3.5 percent for Luxembourg.
The news from Europe added to the upbeat data from the United States, which showed the economy created a better-than-expected net nonfarm 103,000 jobs in September.
The Labor Department also revised upward the two previous months' job creation numbers, indicating that employment in the faltering economy had more momentum than previously believed.
The July payrolls totalled 127,000, not the 85,000 initially estimated, while August was revised from zero to 57,000.
However, Wellington-based ANZ bank strategists said in a note: "Some optimists are hailing an end to the risk of recession for the US, but given this data is volatile and prone to large revisions, we'll not make any significant judgements from one outturn."
But putting downward pressure on markets was Fitch's decision Friday to cut it ratings on Italy and Spain, citing the increasing pressure on them as the eurozone crisis makes it harder for them to raise cash.
"The downgrade reflects the intensification of the eurozone crisis that constitutes a significant financial and economic shock which has weakened Italy's sovereign risk profile," Fitch said.
The single currency was at $1.3454 against the dollar, from $1.3375 late Friday in New York, and at 103.25 yen, from 103.10 yen.
The dollar was at 76.70 yen, from 76.73. 
Crude prices were up in Asia Monday with New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, adding 93 cents to $83.91 a barrel.
Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gained 53 cents to $106.41.
By 0210 GMT gold was at $1,652.10 an ounce, up from $1,653.97 at 1045 GMT on Friday. (AFP)

Anti-Gadhafi fighters make gains in Sirte


SIRTE: Libya’s revolutionary forces seized a convention center Sunday that had served as a key base for fighters loyal to Moammar Gadhafi in the fugitive leader’s hometown, as they squeezed remaining regime loyalists in the besieged coastal city.
An anti-Gaddafi soldier breaks a picture frame holding a photo of Moammar Gadhafi inside Ibn Sina hospital in the centre of Sirte.
The inability to take Sirte, the most important remaining stronghold of Gadhafi supporters, more than six weeks after anti-Gadhafi fighters seized the capital has stalled efforts by Libya’s new leaders to set a timeline for elections and move forward with a transition to democracy.
Gadhafi supporters also hold the inland enclave of Bani Walid, where revolutionary forces have been stymied by challenging terrain.
But the transitional leadership has said it will declare liberation after Sirte’s capture because that will mean it holds all of the seaports and harbors in the oil-rich Mediterranean coastal country.
Libya’s de facto leader, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, head of the governing National Transitional Council, said Sunday that anti-Gadhafi fighters have made huge gains in Sirte and Bani Walid, southeast of the capital.
”I do believe, God willing, that the liberation of these cities will happen within this week,” Abdul-Jalil told reporters in Tripoli.
He said that revolutionary forces are advancing on Bani Walid from five sides, while Libyan fighters in Sirte have punched their way into the city center in fierce fighting and are now cleaning out pockets of resistance.
Located 250 miles (400 kilometers) southeast of Tripoli, Sirte is key to the physical unity of the nation of some 6 million people, since it lies roughly in the center of the coastal plain where most Libyans live, blocking the easiest routes between east and west.
After a three-week siege from the outskirts, revolutionary forces launched an all-out assault on Sirte on Friday, pounding the city with tank shells, field cannons, rockets and heavy machine guns.
Loyalists have put up fierce resistance, and fired back with sniper rifles, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades.
On Sunday, the Ouagadougou Convention Center, an ornate complex that Gadhafi frequently used for international summits, lay in ruins.
Throughout the siege, Gadhafi fighters used the walled complex as a base and stronghold. From there they were able to dominate surrounding neighborhoods and assault revolutionaries trying to enter Sirte.
At the nearby Ibn Sina Hospital, scores of wounded civilians crowded the corridors, lying on gurneys and floors to protect them from the shelling and gunfire.
There was no electricity or water, and a handful of medical students and nurses were the only medical staff.
Revolutionary fighters roamed the hallways checking IDs and detained about 25 people suspected of being Gadhafi fighters or mercenaries.
”These are all Gadhafi people. They are snipers and we have captured them,” said Ahmed Rahman, a field commander, as his soldiers cuffed a suspected pro-Gadhafi sniper.
The revolutionary forces also now control the University of Sirte on the southern outskirts.
As they push forward, Gadhafi loyalists are fighting in an ever-shrinking defensive perimeter consisting only of a Gadhafi palace complex, some residential buildings and a hotel near Green Square in the city center.

Euro lifted in Asia by France-Germany plan


SINGAPORE: The euro rose above $1.34 in Asia on Monday after France and Germany vowed swift action to shore up Europe's struggling banks, analysts said.

The single European unit bought $1.3450 in the morning compared with $1.3375 in New York late Friday, while it sat at 103.20 yen from 103.10 yen. 
The greenback traded at 76.75 yen from 76.73 yen.
The euro fell below $1.34 late Friday after Fitch downgraded the ratings of Italy and Spain, citing increasing pressure on them as the eurozone debt crisis makes efforts to stabilise their public finances even more difficult.
But Emmanuel Ng, currency economist of OCBC Bank in Singapore, told the "market is attempting to push the euro higher against the dollar".
Ng stated that the euro rally was led by traders encouraged by a promise from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday promising action to recapitalise troubled lenders within weeks.
"I think it's just from the spillover from the weekend comments arising out of the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting so it's just newsflow regarding the potential (bank) recapitalisation plans," he said.
Without announcing concrete details about the plans, Sarkozy said there would be "lasting, global and quick responses before the end of the month", amid rampant fears of a crippling credit crunch.
The news could ease concerns over a lack of direction in the eurozone leadership as France and Germany, the two main powerhouses of the bloc, had been at odds over the best way to recapitalise the region's banks.
It also comes a few weeks ahead of a G20 summit in Cannes, at which Sarkozy said Europe must "arrive at the (meeting) united and with the problems resolved". (AFP)

Nuclear disarmament and the youth: View from India - Dawn Blog


President Obama’s Prague speech, in which he laid the foundations of a renewed quest for a world free of nuclear weapons, was greeted around the world with both awe and skepticism. Analysts all around the world dissected his words, ruminated over his intent and commented on his vision, I found the speech intriguing for completely different reasons. When President Obama said that the goal of nuclear disarmament will not be accomplished in his life time, for many political pundits around the world, it represented an act of buck-passing. However those words conveyed an essential truth: the need of an enabled posterity to understand the risks of a trigger-happy nuclear world and to continue the endeavour towards a world free of nuclear weapons and concomitant hazards. Yet at the altar of political interpretations, this foresight was sacrificed.
It is this characteristically different reading of his speech which allows us to see the importance of an enabled posterity which can understand fully the stakes involved in the project of nuclear disarmament and can convincingly argue the case of a nuclear weapons free world. If the goal of a nuclear weapons free world is to be pursued, one has to acknowledge the importance of youth, the shoulders which are going to bear responsibility for the future and who will make sure that the quest continues, until the ultimate goal of a global zero is achieved. 
In the context of South Asia, the need for involvement of youth in the nuclear discourse is being acutely felt. There is a paucity of institutions, both government backed or private, which can educate the masses specially students and develop a capacity among the youth in order to understand the nuances of nuclear weapons and issue of disarmament. Without an independent and matured understanding of the issue, critical reflection on the need and viability of nuclear weapons has become a casualty. Given the desperate socio-economic condition of the majority of the people in the region, the unwillingness of the state to allow a more informed understanding of nuclear issues and the incapacity of youth to question nuclearisation appear to constitute nothing less than a conspiracy to sustain the discourse of nuclear brinksmanship.
There are also very few avenues for students, who have genuine interest in the subject, to understand the minutiae of the debate and engage with these at both national and international level. Hardly any regional workshops or conferences are organised to bring the youth of the region at a single platform to discuss nuclear disarmament. Given the rapid proliferation of think tanks and NGO’s in the aftermath of 1998 nuclear explosions, such a scenario is an awful reminder that nuclearisation has been accepted as something normal in the subcontinent.
Fallouts of such a situation are many. First, even when most of the states in the region are democracies, the lack of expertise on nuclear issues is a serious handicap in openly debating the need and viability of nuclear weapons and subsequent opportunity costs. This lack of knowledge encumbers the development of strong civil society initiatives against the politically motivated weaponisation program of the national governments. This also allows the dominant narratives of the nuclear hawks and other bureaucratic lobbies in the region to be generally accepted by the uninformed citizenry, since the capacity for critical evaluation is lacking.  More so, such a situation also allows the use of overt weaponisation strategies by the political parties to garner an electoral base.
Second, the politics of nuclear weapons has allowed the building of militarist regional order where power hierarchies have dominated the issues of cooperation and development. The muteness or relative silence of the Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) on issues of nuclearisation of the region points in this direction. Even when the nuclearisation imperils the security of all the states in the region, NNWS have hardly acted as a cohesive pressure group within the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to bring the agenda of nuclear disarmament at the negotiating table in various regional summits. Again the lack of expertise on the nuclear issues and active civil society in these countries has played a spoilsport.
Third, the lack of effective regional youth networks dealing with the issue of nuclear disarmament has not allowed the development of a collective identity of the region as a possible nuclear weapons free zone. The issue of nuclearisation of the region is still seen through the contours of national boundaries and the deficiency of interactions has stifled the possibilities of hearing the views of the others.
Yet to underscore the need for developing and shaping young minds in South Asia is to understand the fact that the thought process of strategic communities in South Asian region is still embedded in the experiences of the Cold War decades. For example, the Indian strategic mindset mostly perceives various arms control proposals through skepticism bred and nurtured during the Cold War years and it is hard to conceive a different approach until this staunchly embedded thinking is challenged. Most of the strategic analysts in the country are victims of this Cold War nuclear schizophrenia.
What is also to be noticed is that India has relinquished its stand on global nuclear disarmament for all practical purposes, though it still rhetorically clings to the past at times. Such a reinterpretation of Indian priorities is informed from a wrong perception of India’s rise. The need, therefore, is to reverse this trend of great power mimicry and to provide a new discourse in which priorities are not the amount of fissile material production but the alleviation of poverty and illiteracy.
In the case of Pakistan, on the other hand, the anti-India security discourse has helped the political elite specially the military to secure its sectional interests over the years. Nuclear weapons are only a new avatar, though much more potent and aggressive, of this contrivance of Pakistan’s military to perpetuate its hold on Pakistan’s polity and society. Interestingly, in both the states, people have come to love the bomb rather than detest it. The atomic publics of India and Pakistan, as Itty Abraham puts it in his new book, have embraced the weapons of their own destruction rather emphatically.  
In this backdrop, it is important to understand the crucial role which young, independent analysts can play in ameliorating the situation. There is a need to question and challenge the current discourse which eulogises nuclear weapons as acceptable instruments of political and social life. The collective wisdom – that nuclear weapons make us safe – is not what the youth of the region have decided for themselves; it is rather an imposition on younger generations from above, from the nuclear hawks who have sworn their life in the service of nukes.
The time is appropriate for thinking of a new collective future for South Asia, a future without nuclear weapons and only the youth can do that because in all legitimacy, the future belongs to them and them only.
Yogesh Joshi studies international politics at the Center for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament (CIPOD), School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). New Delhi. He is a youth representative of Global Zero – an international NGO working towards a nuclear weapons free world – and runs a Global Zero Chapter at JNU.

China factor in Afghanistan


THE signing of the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership last week reaffirmed the establishment’s narratives about Pakistan’s real concerns across its western border: it’s not about militancy or instability, but about Indian hegemony.
The timing of the pact, and its focus on security cooperation, intimates Pakistan’s nightmare scenario of encirclement by India. Former military ruler Pervez Musharraf pointed to the pact as proof that India is seeking to create “an anti-Pakistan Afghanistan”. And so we’re back to binaries: India versus Pakistan in a potential proxy war in Afghanistan.
But things are never as straightforward as they seem. Most political dynamics in South Asia are seen through the bilateral lens of tense India-Pakistan relations. However, in most cases, those tensions are actually trilateral, with Sino-Indian tensions playing out in the background. Afghanistan is no exception.
In recent days, Pakistan has dwelled on the Strategic Partnership between New Delhi and Kabul because of the security implications of India playing a bigger role in training Afghan security forces. This narrow focus has prevented Islamabad from emphasising the significance of two other pacts signed by India and Afghanistan last week. One MoU calls for enhanced cooperation in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, primarily oil and gas. A second MoU, signed between the Indian and Afghan ministries of mines, calls for promoting mineral exploration and investment in Afghanistan’s mines.
These MoUs were signed in the same week that it was revealed that the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) — the largest state-owned Chinese company — has won the rights to explore and develop oil fields in Afghanistan’s Amu Darya basin.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Alexander Benard and Eli Sugarman explain that Amu Darya contains five known fields containing 80 million barrels of crude oil, which amounts to 11,000 barrels per day for 20 years.
It is no secret that the Chinese government covets Afghanistan’s natural resources. In 2007, China won another major tender for the Aynak copper deposit, estimated to be worth $80bn. Indeed, China has recently invested in various Central Asian natural resources to supply energy and raw materials for its booming industries.
Rather than obsess purely about India’s security designs in Afghanistan vis-à-vis Pakistan, Islamabad should also plan for the China factor. It is clear that India and China are competing for access to Afghanistan’s rich mineral and energy resources. It is also clear that this competition fuels some of New Delhi’s strategic thinking regarding its presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s repeated failure to account for India’s concerns about China in a security and nuclear context has driven the country into an endless arms race.
Billions have been spent on conventional and nuclear weapons as Pakistan tries to compete with the testy economic powerhouses on its periphery. Before it makes the same mistake in Afghanistan, Pakistan should account for the fact that there are more than two players interested in present-day Afghanistan. Leaving India aside, Pakistan should also consider the medium- and long-term ramifications of Chinese investment in Afghanistan.
On the positive side, Pakistan could find ways to collaborate with China on its extractive and energy-related initiatives in Afghanistan. Such an involvement would expand Pakistan’s interface with Afghanistan beyond political interference to substantial investment and infrastructure development work. Given Pakistan’s worsening energy crisis, any additional options for access to energy must be pursued.
The political benefits of Chinese presence in Afghanistan are also worth noting: as a major investor in Afghanistan’s natural resource industries, China will also enjoy a fair amount of political influence in Kabul. The durability of the Sino-Pak relationship suggests that Beijing would intervene with Kabul in the future if Afghanistan chose to pursue policies hostile to Pakistan. Knowing that China would defend Pakistani interests should give Islamabad the confidence not to pursue paranoid or self-destructive policies in the name of ‘strategic depth’.
Of course, an expanded Chinese presence in Afghanistan could work against Pakistan, but only if Islamabad continues to pursue its current tack of backing militant groups as proxies. Beijing will have little patience for militants receiving Pakistani support if they in any way detract from China’s ability to reap the benefits of its investments (for example, if poor security prevents CNPC from exploring the oil fields at Amu Darya). Right now, China is letting the US do the dirty work of slapping Pakistan on the wrist for backing militant groups. Once US troops withdraw from the region in 2014, we can expect China to take a harder line: remember, it was on Beijing’s insistence that the Pakistan Army conducted Operation Silence at Lal Masjid in 2007.
China will also not tolerate any activities that could lead to a full-blown confrontation between Pakistan and India. While Beijing and New Delhi are engaged in fierce competition on the global stage, they also enjoy a significant trading relationship.
China does seven times more trade with India than it does with Pakistan, and is India’s largest trading partner, even over the US. China is aware that its long-standing strategic partnership with Pakistan would disrupt these strong economic ties in the event of a crisis. For that reason, it will pressurise Pakistan in the medium term to abandon the use of proxies against Indian interests in Afghanistan.
Finally, Beijing will probably bring in low-cost labour from China to work on extractive and explorative projects in Afghanistan. The last thing China needs is for these workers to become radicalised as a result of exposure to Pakistan-backed militant groups before returning to the mainland.
In sum, Pakistan’s adherence to the proxy war narrative is likely to prove misguided and counterproductive in years to come.
In the context of Chinese interests in Afghanistan, it also threatens to leave Pakistan isolated, even from its closest allies.

Pemra protects the sacred cows by Irfan Hussain


ACCORDING to a news report in the Guardian covering the recently concluded annual Conservative Party conference in Manchester, Prime Minister David Cameron bumped into the newspaper’s political cartoonist, Steve Bell. At this chance encounter, the British PM asked: “Steve, when are you taking the condom off my head?”
This seemingly bizarre query was in reference to Bell’s re-invention of the Tory leader as an inflated condom in his hilariously rude cartoon strip. Taken aback, Bell is reported to have spluttered: “It’s too late!” Day in and day out, Guardian readers are regaled by the sight of the shiny, pink prime minister with a nipple above his head, and often in the company of the Chancellor, George Osborne (depicted as a pig), discussing the issues of the day.
Despite the grossly offensive nature of the cartoons, Ofcom, the British media regulator, has never issued a notice to the Guardian, demanding that its cartoonist should be reined in. This tolerance of political satire is a sign of the maturity of the democratic tradition here.
In contrast, Pemra, Pakistan’s electronic media regulator, has recently “taken serious notice of satirical programmes”.
According to Pemra, they indulged in “character assassination, humiliation and defamation of dignitaries”. A Pemra spokesman announced that ads would soon be issued “to direct the channels to stop airing funny portrayals of dignitaries”.
Actually, most of our so-called dignitaries need to be deflated at regular intervals. In a recent BBC programme hosted by David Frost, the veteran broadcaster spoke about “pricking the pomposity of politicians”. This is a much-needed exercise that demands the talent and constant attention of our satirists. Our prominent figures, ranging from politicians to generals to bureaucrats, take themselves much too seriously, and deserve a regular toasting under bright studio lights.
The Pemra spokesman warned that if action is mot taken by TV channels, such satirical shows may “invite public wrath against the regulator”. Actually, what should invite public wrath is Pemra’s total failure in preventing the rubbish our TV chat show hosts regularly inflict on viewers. They and their guests toss around the most libellous accusations against politicians without let or hindrance. I have heard guests mention figures of bribes allegedly taken by one leader or another as though they were witnesses to the transactions. Facts are twisted, threats are hurled, poison is spewed, but Pemra is unmoved. In the regulator’s view, laughter is not allowed, but lies and distortions are.
In one of the most flagrant displays of dereliction of regulatory duty, a prominent anchor with a permanent smirk encouraged a guest to declare that Ahmadis were ‘wajib-ul qatal’, or deserving of death. Within days, two Ahmadis were murdered. Pemra was silent on the matter, as was the management of the large TV network.
Political satire has a long and honourable tradition in literature. From Jonathan Swift to Manto, writers have aimed wickedly effective attacks on authority and hypocritical social norms. With the advent of radio and TV (and more recently, the Internet), satirists have taken their sharp wit to larger audiences. So when the Pakistan government tried to introduce legislation aimed at protecting the political leadership from jokes posted on the Internet or sent by SMS, there were gales of laughter around the world.
The point Pemra should remember is that laughter is a healthy reaction to the stupidity of the ruling classes. Censorship has never been able to prevent us from circulating jokes about the pompous figures who strut about on the national stage. Even in Zia’s dark days, when censorship was absolute and the electronic media was tightly controlled, savage satire about the dictator did the rounds by word of mouth, or between the lines in the press. Indeed, dictatorships across the world are targeted, and often, humorous stories skip across borders, with only the names of the despots being changed.
Who can forget Tina Fey’s depiction of Sarah Palin on a TV show in which she caught the vacuous charm of the Alaskan candidate for vice-presidency? In a few short minutes of well-aimed satire, Fay has probably made Palin unelectable. In fact, after that TV programme, Palin no longer gives interviews for fear of being exposed in all her glorious ignorance.
Often, satire is intended as deadly serious comment and criticism, but sugar-coated in humour to make it palatable. The best satirists tend to portray their subjects accurately enough to recognise, while exaggerating some key feature. Thus, Steve Bell caricatures the Labour leader, Ed Milliband, as a panda-eyed, slightly demented man. Although George Bush was always depicted as a chimpanzee by Bell, the US president was instantly recognisable.
In Britain, nobody from the Queen downwards is immune from lampooning. In the US, stand-up comics regularly skewer the holy cows of the day. Private Eye, Britian’s iconic satirical magazine, has been sued numerous times for slander. It combines witty writing with investigative reporting that has embarrassed politicians and governments. France’s Le Canard Enchaine (The Chained Duck) has uncovered many scams and scandals in high places, and is required reading for the political class.
And while western politicians, like everybody else, don’t like being laughed at, they know they must put up with the barbs tossed their way by the media. In our part of the world, however, macho leaders can’t tolerate much criticism, especially when it comes wrapped in waspish humour.
I can understand Pemra’s predicament: every time some stuffed shirt in government is pilloried on TV, he gets humiliated and picks up the phone. The more senior the person in the spotlight, the greater the heat Pemra gets. In the good old days when PTV was the only show in town, keeping producers and writers in check was not a problem: anybody stepping out of line would soon be out of work.
But as TV channels have proliferated and competition for viewers and advertising has become fiercer, more controversial programming has become the norm. Sadly, much of this consists of hysterical chat shows. But every once in a while, satirical programmes like the one built around the marvellous Begum Nawazish light up our TV screens. These should be relished as long as they last.

Is circular debt the real issue?


By Salman Khalid and Kamal Munir 
PAKISTAN has been facing a series of power crises over roughly the last two decades. However, since 2007, the situation has deteriorated rapidly.
As a result of severe electricity shortage, industry, commerce and agriculture have all taken serious hits with the country’s growth prospects dimming significantly. At the same time, residential consumers have had to endure over eight-to-12-hour blackouts in major cities. The situation is even worse in rural Pakistan.
Surprisingly, the total energy produced in the country has actually decreased nearly 10 per cent between 2007 and 2010.
This is primarily due to lower-capacity utilisation, which in turn has been the result of ‘circular debt’, a concept that has been bandied around freely over the past few years as the primary problem that besets energy production in Pakistan.
However, despite its dominance of policy discourse, circular debt is not the fundamental issue here. The two most glaring reasons behind the present mess Pakistan finds itself in are the 1994 energy policy and the resultant extreme over-reliance on expensive imported fuel mix.
It is easy to forget that the roots of the present power crisis can be traced to almost two decades back with the advent of the highly generous 1994 power policy for independent power producers (IPP). At that time the country’s electricity generation relied on a fuel mix of approximately 70:30 in favour of hydro versus thermal. This changed dramatically over the next decade with the fuel mix going to 30 per cent hydro and almost 70 per cent thermal by the end of 2010.
This dramatic shift in generation source occurred because the 1994 power policy (and later the 2002 power policy) did not discriminate on fuel source being employed and made the country hostage to fluctuations in international oil and gas prices (the country does not possess either commodity in sufficient quantity).
The cost of this strategic policy-level folly can be understood with the following comparison. As per the National Power System Expansion Plan 2010-2030, as of 2010, Wapda (employing hydro production) generated electricity at Rs1.03/kWh ((1.2 cents/kWh) while public-sector thermal power plants provided the same at Rs8.5/kWh (10 cents/kwh).
However, the IPPs (primarily thermal) provided the same at Rs9.58/kWh (11.2 cents/kWh). As a result, the average blended cost of generation was Rs6.6/kWh (7.7 cents/kWh) in 2010 which further increased to Rs9.81/kWh (11.5 cents/kWh) for the end consumer due to line losses and theft in the transmission and distribution systems.
It should be noted that the above numbers underestimate the true cost because the cost of energy from old power plants is substantially lower due to repayment of debt. Most new thermal IPPs are charging in the range of 15-18 cents/kWh at current oil prices. As a result, tariffs will substantially increase further as the world economy comes out of recession over the next few years and oil/gas prices jump (with the US trying to print its way out of recession).
Even after adjusting for debt repayment, power production through indigenous hydro resources comes out much better than what we are given to believe.
The estimated cost of energy stands at 1.6 cents/kWh for Kalabagh dam with a vast majority of new hydros expected to come under 4.5 cents/kWh as per a recent NTDC (National Transmission and Despatch Company) report. Furthermore, the country has so far completely failed to develop its coal reserves (only 30MW coming from coal) which are estimated at 175 billion tonnes (the second largest in the world). Engro estimates a tariff of 10-12 cents/kWh for Thar coal-based power production based on the current policy. Incredibly, the world average for coal-based power production in the energy mix is 40 per cent while it is only 0.1 per cent in Pakistan.
To make matters worse, many of the thermal IPPs set-ups under both the 1994 and 2002 power policy are of inefficient design (single cycle rather than more efficient combined cycle) since these policies provided cost plus equity return of 15 per cent irrespective of the efficiency of the technology/fuel source being used in the power plant.
Many of these IPPs would normally be used for load-balancing (matching sudden jumps in demand etc) in other countries and would fall low in the merit order for power plants used but are instead employed for satisfying standard base demand in Pakistan. One begs to question the wisdom and/or sincerity of the policymakers of the country who completely ignored two of the biggest energy resources available locally which cost substantially less than the options they opted for.
Some people provide the excuse regarding the political deadlock over the Kalabagh dam and hence the need for Pakistan to go to the oil/gas-based IPP route. But what stopped the policymakers from going down the coal route, let alone hydro projects apart from the Kalabagh dam? Why couldn’t the Diamer-Bhasha dam or the Bunji or Doyian dam be commenced in the early 1990s instead of a Hubco?
Circular debt is a red herring. The core problem lies in wrong policy choices made in the early 1990s that have continued since then. These choices, made for whatever reasons (pressure from the World Bank, corruption, incompetence) have shifted Pakistan away from self-reliance in energy generation and landed us at the mercy of daily fluctuations of the international oil/gas markets and choked industrial progress in the country.
Taking subsidies away is not the solution. Electricity should not only be available to the wealthy! The provision of affordable electricity is the basic right of every citizen.
In a country that has unparalleled resources to generate electricity the present situation is unacceptable. Printing money to clear circular debt will hardly deliver us from this problem. For Pakistanis to be able to get an affordable, sufficient, long-term energy supply, the sustainable solution lies in revisiting the ridiculous power policies of 1994 and 2002 and exploiting other, more sensible sources of generation.
Salman Khalid has managed investments in power generation in Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. Kamal Munir teaches Strategy and Policy at the University of Cambridge.