Huge discount rate cut surprises market

KARACHI, Oct 8: The State Bank on Saturday threw a pleasant surprise by chopping off its policy rate by 150bps above the market expectations, but analysts critical about the huge cut in view of changing of base-year to show declining inflationary trend.

The SBP brought down the discount rate to 12 per cent for October-November from 13.5 per cent. However most of the market experts were anticipating a cut of 50 basis points.

It was expected that the SBP would adopt a strategy of gradual decrease in the rates to avoid any upheaval in the economy. In July 2011 the discount rate was cut by 50 basis points after keeping it on the higher side since 2008 to fight double-digit inflation.

The government failing to rope in price hike has recently changed the base year for calculating inflation to 2008, the year when average inflation was 20 per cent.

Some analysts think the SBP move will energise the economy.

“This surprising cut suggests that the central bank is focusing on economic growth at a time when IMF support is not there,” said Mohammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities.

He said the decision may put some pressure on the rupee while equity and bonds would rally.

The business community welcoming the move said that it was long over due. “I must say it is positive and will definitely stir economic growth while the 150bps cut in policy rate may translate in two per cent decline in lending rate to corporate
sector,” said Saleem Parekh, former chairman SITE Association.

He added that it would also encourage long-term investment, which is almost nil at this moment.

The business community has been criticising the State Bank to keep such a high interest rate that did not allow the private sector to borrow for long term planning or expansion of existing units.

For some analysts the government would be the biggest beneficiary of this low interest rate since it has been the biggest borrower for last three years from the banking system.

Only last year the government made record borrowing of Rs598 billion from the scheduled banks and Rs247 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal 2012.

“First the government is the real beneficiary and secondly the lower inflation is not as low as being shown because the base-year has been changed,” said Syed Shahid Iqbal, a money market expert.

However, he said the overall situation might see some relaxation for private sector provided the government reduces its borrowing.

The State Bank expected lower GDP growth and also expressed concern over exports. “The likelihood of falling short of the annual GDP growth target has increased due to damaging impact of recent flood in Sindh,” it said.

“The rapidly deteriorating global economic conditions, especially in Pakistan’s export-destination countries, do not provide much confidence either,” said the SBP

Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/huge-discount-rate-cut-surprises-market.html

Also View http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/08/sbp-cuts-key-policy-rate-by-150-bps-to-12-pc.html for SBP cuts key policy rate by 150 bps to 12 pc

UK review identifies Afghan civil war risk

LONDON: A British government review of the Afghan conflict is to warn that there are “significant risks” of civil war or a Taliban takeover of the south and east of the country after Nato withdraws its combat troops at the end of the 2014.

On the 10th anniversary of the start of the war, military progress is patchy with fighting still intense in the east and in parts of Helmand province. Over the past few days, British troops have been sent in to the thick of a bloody, drawn-out struggle along the Helmand river valley, taking over a fiercely contested area from US marines a few kilometres south of Sangin town, the site of the UK’s heaviest losses since its forces moved into the province in 2006.

With three years to go until Afghan security forces are supposed to fight the insurgency without the help of foreign combat troops, the Afghanistan review will portray a country in turmoil. Last year’s 30,000-strong US troop surge and new counterinsurgency tactics have pushed the Taliban out of much of the territory it controlled a year ago, but with the widespread use of improvised mines and roadside bombs, as well as a campaign of assassinations, the insurgents have sought to paralyse the Kabul government and hinder western-backed development.

Retired US general Stanley McChrystal, the former commander of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (Isaf), said the force was only “50% of the way” to achieving its goals in the country.

President Hamid Karzai’s administration remains weak and corrupt, reliant on a loose coalition of warlords. The country’s biggest bank has been crippled by rampant embezzlement, and there have been a string of assassinations of high-profile Karzai allies, culminating last month in the killing of the government top peace envoy, Burhanuddin Rabbani.

The British government review, ordered by the prime minister David Cameron earlier this year and due to be delivered in mid-November, will warn of significant risks of the recent, hard-won progress unravelling and the very real threat of a multi-dimensional civil war between insurgent factions, regional and tribal groups, fuelled by neighbouring powers jockeying for position.

Talibanisation of the Pakhtun belt
Another possible outcome is referred to as the “Talibanisation of the Pakhtun belt”, in which the Pakhtun areas on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border slip permanently under the control of ultra-conservative militants, further destabilising Pakistan, an already fragile state armed with nuclear weapons.

The report, as described by officials, will make clear that these remain worst-case scenarios which can be avoided. But even the outcome judged by the report to be most likely after the 2014 transition, a precarious Afghan state with pockets of chronic violence, would leave the terrorist threat from the region as potent as it is today.

A senior British diplomat would not comment on the specifics of the review as it is classified and has yet to be finalised, but confirmed that “those sorts of scenarios are being studied”. “It is going to be a cold-eyed realistic appraisal,” the diplomat said.

The 20 September killing of Rabbani by a suicide bomber with explosives concealed in his turban, has set back hopes of a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. While senior Nato officials believe the evidence leads back to the Taliban’s Pakistan haven in Quetta, they do not think the assassination was specifically ordered by the top leadership, but rather was the work of an over-zealous second-tier commander. That leaves open the possibility that informal US contacts, begun last year, could resume.

But levels of distrust, both between Nato and the Taliban, and between Rabbani’s northern kinsmen and rebel Pakhtun tribes in the south, are now higher than ever.

“Anyone who is following the situation in Afghanistan is worried. A civil war is a real possibility,” said Martine van Bijlert of the Kabul-based Afghanistan Analysts Network.

“There is a real feeling of instability, that the future is unsure. People don’t know who are their friends and enemies. So they try to make themselves ready for any eventuality, positioning themselves politically and worrying about how strong they are.
People are falling back on old networks and old loyalties.”

In Helmand, last year’s influx of 11,000 of US marines has suppressed the insurgency in several districts and reduced the pressure on British troops garrisoned in the province. But Barack Obama is now drawing down the surge, and the troops are going home or redploying to the eastern provinces to counter the threat of splinter jihadist groups.

Three hundred British soldiers are currently being deployed with Afghan troops along a particularly volatile stretch of the Helmand river south of Sangin, replacing a US marine battalion that was unable to make progress against the local insurgents and found itself under daily attack, suffering five deaths over six months and more than 80 wounded.

Danish forces stationed further south towards the town of Gereshk were forced to withdraw earlier this year from a forward base known as Armadillo as a result of an insurgent onslaught, dismantling the fortifications stone by stone and shipping part of it back to a military museum in Denmark.

Not a lot has changed
The newly-arrived British troops and their Afghan counterparts will be patrolling an area known as Qal Yeh Gaz, just 12kms south of Sangin town. One of the departing US marines, Captain Andrew Terrell told the BBC that “not a lot has changed” since he was deployed nearby with British commandos four years ago. “The situation is no better. The people here are not fed up with the fighting, they’ve not reached the limit of what they’re willing to accept from the Taliban,” Terrell said. “It’s easier for them to move out of the area and hope it settles down, but they don’t look much further than tomorrow.”

A coalition of Afghan and western aid agencies has published research suggesting that despite the influx of $57bn in foreign aid since 2001, progress in health, education and a public sense of security has been patchy and tenuous.

Farhana Faruqi Stocker, the director of Afghanaid said: “Investments have been made where there is the greatest insurgency rather than where there is the greatest need. Impoverished regions have been ignored because they are ‘secure’.” She added: “Afghan lives have improved but the gains are fragile and reversible.”—Dawn/Guardian News Service

Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/uk-review-identifies-afghan-civil-war-risk.html

Guardian UK: Youth joblessness highest since Tories last in power, new figures to reveal

More than a million young people are now unemployed, the highest number since the Conservatives were last in power, government figures to be published this week are expected to reveal.

The figures have been swollen by the number of graduates and school-leavers who have failed to find work after joining the jobs market this summer. Unemployment rose by 80,000 to reach 2.51 million in the three months to July, 77,000 of whom were 18- to-24-year-olds, lifting the youth joblessness total to 973,000.

But new figures taking into account the last three months are expected to be the worst since comparable statistics were first recorded in the early 1990s.

Howard Archer of consultancy IHS Global Insight said this week's figures were likely to show a 90,000 increase, pushing the total number of people out of work on the government's preferred measure to 2.6 million – above its previous peak and the highest level in 17 years – and pushing the number of unemployed young people above 1 million. It is already known that the number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance in August rose by 20,300. Archer said: "The worry is that, having shown impressive resilience earlier this year, the labour market is increasingly buckling under serious pressure from weak economic activity."

Some experts expect the number out of work to increase further over the next three months and into next year. Madhur Jha, a global economist at HSBC, said: "We expect unemployment to continue to rise over the latter months of 2011 and the first half of 2012. We believe that the fundamental trend for the UK labour market has been one of renewed weakness."

The unemployment figures are likely to increase pressure on the chancellor, George Osborne, to go beyond the credit-easing measures announced in his speech at the Tory conference in Manchester last week. He spoke of plans to make it easier for small businesses to gain credit, but has so far refused to invest more in a growth strategy.

Rachel Reeves, who was appointed the new shadow chief secretary to the Treasury in Ed Miliband's reshuffle, last night called for renewed urgency from the government.

Reeves said: "Youth unemployment is at its highest level since 1992 and yet the government refuses to look at a plan B for jobs and growth. The problem will get worse rather than better until the government thinks again and it is families, and people leaving school, college and university who are paying the price."

The figures come as the Observer reveals growing concerns among graduates that they are being forced into providing their labour for freethrough internships and work experience programmes as employers exploit the huge and growing pool of unemployed young people desperate for a way into the jobs market. A campaign headed by the website Graduate Fog reveals how employers, including clothes retailer Urban Outfitters, are advertising unpaid internships lasting up to nine months.

Ben Lyons, of Intern Aware, a group campaigning for young people to be paid fairly, said the problem of corporations exploiting young people through unpaid internships was escalating. "Corporations are finding it easier than ever to exploit desperation and aspiration to get labour for free," he said. "It is wrong for people to have to work for free, and it is wrong that the only people who can do this work are those with savings or sources of money of their own. It is wrong and it is stupid because employers are restricting the market of people from which they choose their employees. Things need to change."

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/oct/08/youth-unemployment-figures-one-million

Article @ Gurdian UK: Euro crisis spreads and puts the world economy at risk

When finance ministers from the G20 major economies meet next weekend, they could be excused for having a sickening feeling of deja vu. This time it's Paris, not London, but, just as in May 2009 when Gordon Brown brought the power-brokers of the world economy together in Docklands, they are trying to prevent a financial crisis spiralling out of control and dragging the global economy into recession. This time, though, there is far less political agreement or goodwill.

Instead of the US, where the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent consumers and investors into panic mode, this time the focus is firmly on the eurozone, and time is running out. Greece is on the brink of going bust if it doesn't receive a fresh injection of cash, and bond vigilantes are focusing their fire on the much bigger Italian and Spanish economies, which had their debt downgraded by Moody's on Friday. Meanwhile, many economists think the eurozone as a whole may already have sunk into recession.

An intertwined global financial system means that's not just a problem forEurope. The Bric economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have warned that fixing the eurozone debt crisis must be an urgent priority, while the US has seen shares in its banks plummet because of their exposures to potentially toxic Greek debt. The G20 heads of state meet in Cannes on 3-4 November. By then the eurozone countries have to have a credible plan.

But for non-eurozone members of the G20, including China, the US and the UK, this week's gathering is likely to be just as frustrating as their sojourn in Washington, when they repeatedly urged their eurozone counterparts to get a grip on the spiralling crisis, and were greeted with disdain or outright hostility.

For eurozone finance ministers, there are complex, interlocking challenges. First, they must decide whether, and for how long, to keep bankrolling the Greeks. Greece received its first bailout last spring, and a second rescue deal was agreed in July, against the background of panic on world markets. Without the much-delayed release of the latest €8bn (£6.8bn) tranche of that first loan, Greece could run out of money within weeks but, so far, despite a dizzying series of austerity programmes, Athens has failed to convince its creditors to hand over the cash.

Meanwhile, parliaments across the 17-member zone have been hastily voting through the pact agreed in July, which involved increasing the powers of the eurozone bailout fund, the European financial stability facility (EFSF), enabling it to buy the debts of distressed economies when they come under pressure from investors, and to lend money to member countries that need to bail out their banking sectors.

But the July agreement could still fall: the Slovakian parliament, where there is widespread opposition to beefing up the EFSF, is due to vote this week. Even if the deal is signed by all member states, there is still intense pressure to come up with a much more powerful response to the crisis and show that eurozone countries are determined to contain it.

The EFSF is much too small to bail out Italy or Spain if that became necessary, or to fill the gaping hole in the balance sheets of Europe's banks that would open up if the debts of Greece had to be written down by 50% or more, which many observers believe to be inevitable.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has part-funded both Greek rescue loans, said last week that it would cost at least €100bn to shore up Europe's banks. IMF head Christine Lagarde is meeting France's Nicolas Sarkozy today to drive that message home. The travails of Franco-Belgian lender Dexia, which has called for help (for a second time) from both governments, because of its exposure to eurozone debt, underlined the urgency.

Markets were cheered when German chancellor Angela Merkel announced she was ready to countenance recapitalising the German banking sector. But insiders say France is pushing a competing plan, under which the EFSF would administer a Europe-wide bailout, perhaps along the lines of America's "Tarp", in which the government took mandatory stakes in all the major US banks to temper the stigma of going cap in hand to the authorities. If each country is left to rescue its own banks, France fears the fragile state of big lenders such as Société Générale could imperil its AAA credit rating.

Among the movers and shakers at the IMF's annual meetings in Washington, there was talk of "leveraging up" the EFSF, to turn its €440bn-worth of firepower into something closer to €2tn. But financial experts say it's hard to make the numbers add up. Unlike other multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, the EFSF does not have a guaranteed call on the resources of its sponsor governments, or "preferred creditor" status that would ensure it would get paid even if one of its backers went bust.

That means any bonds it issued to fund its activities would carry a risk of default, and could miss out on an AAA rating and potentially attract a hefty rate of interest. Yet it's not clear whether giving the EFSF a direct call on the resources of Germany would be constitutional, let alone acceptable to the country's taxpayers.

Until the question of the size and role of the EFSF is resolved, the European Central Bank is the only institution that can help. It reluctantly agreed to buy Italian and Spanish debt to bring their borrowing costs down to more manageable levels as bond markets attacked over the summer. But even that relatively modest intervention cost it the resignation of two German members, Axel Weber and Jürgen Stark, and its outgoing president, Jean-Claude Trichet, has been extremely protective of its independence.

Incoming ECB boss Mario Draghi, an Italian whose appointment was controversial in Germany, is unlikely to want to be seen to play a role in bailing out his crisis-hit homeland, making the politics of the situation even more difficult.

The past two years have seen a recurring pattern of bold announcements, followed within weeks, sometimes days, by a sense of vertigo when the political challenges re-emerge. But with every passing day, the markets' expectations about the eurozone's ability to fix the crisis rise by another notch, and the price of failure increases. Few in Brussels or Berlin are in any doubt that over the next fortnight the very future of the euro is at stake.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/09/g20-finance-ministers-euro-crisis

Guardian UK Sleep easy, war criminals By Michael Mansfield

Israel has violated innumerable UN resolutions and international laws over the past 50 years without any sanction being incurred – whether legal, economic, political or military. Most blatant is its disregard for the overwhelming opinion of the international court of justice in The Hague, which in 2004 declared the erection of a wall through the occupied territories to be unlawful. If you add the illegal occupation of Palestinian territory, continued extension of illegal settlements, forced evictions and house demolitions, requisition of water resources, Gaza blockade and illicit use of cloned passports to facilitate an assassination outside Israel, anyone might be think that this is a state that regards itself as above the law.

The creation of international crimes with universal jurisdiction was accomplished after years of negotiation and careful deliberation for one purpose: to ensure there could be no hiding place or safe haven for the perpetrators of the most heinous crimes against humanity. In practical terms it means that no matter where the offence took place, nor who the victims were, nor who carried out the acts, a judicial process could be invoked to prosecute those responsible. Examples of such cases are genocide, war crimes and torture.

The ICJ itself made clear in the wall case that the obligation to prosecute is the concern of all states. The problem is that no state has been willing to take on this task vis-a-vis Israel other than on a very muted diplomatic level. Lawyers acting for individuals in Palestine have been forced to do so themselves.

In 2009 Westminster magistrates court issued an arrest warrant for Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister at the time of Operation Cast Lead, which caused an estimated death toll of 1,400 in Gaza. Britain's Labour government hierarchy fell over itself rushing to the Israeli authorities, not about the deaths but to apologise for the warrant.

A dramatic incident occurred as Livni was about to appear on Israeli television during the invasion. The interviewer Shlomi Eldar recognised a name that appeared on his mobile – Izzeldin Abuelaish, a Palestinian doctor who had courageously and steadfastly given services without fear or favour equally to Israelis and Palestinians. "They shelled my house. They killed my daughters. What have we done? Shlomi, I wanted to save them but there are dead. They were hit in the head. They died on the spot. Allah, what have we done to them?" Three of his daughters and his niece had just been killed by Israeli forces. The call was broadcast and transmitted round the world. The whole story of the operation as the doctor witnessed it is told in his acclaimed book I Shall Not Hate.

There could be no question that this admired physician was associated with Hamas or terrorism, or even a hostile thought. Only two possibilities make sense: a deliberate attack, or an indiscriminate one that did not afford proper protection for civilians. In these circumstances it is hardly surprising that the UN fact-finding mission on the Gaza conflict found that the Israelis – and Hamas – had committed war crimes and possible crimes against humanity. While the leader of the mission had second thoughts about part of the conclusions in April this year, the other three distinguished members of the panel did not, and the Foreign Office maintained its support for the report and did not wish to see it withdrawn. In any event none of this relates to a failure to accord civilians proper protection.

In September the British government changed the ground rules by providing the director of public prosecutions with the power of veto over private applications for arrest warrants (in the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act). It is an insult to the courts to insinuate that they cannot be trusted to assess the requisite threshold for issuing a warrant. In 10 years only two out of 10 such applications had been granted. We are dealing here with arrest, not charge.

The DPP made clear in January that he would consult the attorney general if approached for approval. The attorney would then decide whether it was in the public interest to prosecute. Such a decision would normally not arise until all relevant evidence had been assembled so that an overview could be made on the twofold test of evidential adequacy and public interest. To essentially assess that there is no reasonable prospect of a conviction at the start is to pre-empt the whole process and makes a mockery of the concept of universal jurisdiction.

It is therefore highly unlikely that any prosecutions of consequence will ensue either at the instigation of the government itself or of an individual – as Livni's meeting with William Hague in London this week demonstrated. Given the British government's lacklustre performance in this field when it comes to nations or individuals who are seen to be unacceptable (eg Pinochet, where it took a Spanish magistrate to act), those in positions of command and responsibility at times when war crimes are committed can now rest easily in their beds.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/07/israel-tzipi-livni

UK helps Israel evade international justice

LONDON: Israel has violated innumerable UN resolutions and international laws over the past 50 years without any sanction being incurred — whether legal, economic, political or military. Most blatant is its disregard for the overwhelming opinion of the international court of justice in The Hague, which in 2004 declared the erection of a wall through the occupied territories to be unlawful. If you add the illegal occupation of Palestinian territory, continued extension of illegal settlements, forced evictions and house demolitions, requisition of water resources, Gaza blockade and illicit use of cloned passports to facilitate an assassination outside Israel, anyone might be think that this is a state that regards itself as above the law.

The creation of international crimes with universal jurisdiction was accomplished after years of negotiation and careful deliberation for one purpose: to ensure there could be no hiding place or safe haven for the perpetrators of the most heinous crimes against humanity. Examples of such cases are genocide, war crimes and torture.

The ICJ itself made clear in the wall case that the obligation to prosecute is the concern of all states. The problem is that no state has been willing to take on this task vis-a-vis Israel other than on a very muted diplomatic level. Lawyers acting for individuals in Palestine have been forced to do so themselves.

In 2009 Westminster magistrates court in central London issued an arrest warrant for Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister at the time of Operation Cast Lead, which caused an estimated death toll of 1,400 in Gaza. Britain`s Labour government hierarchy fell over itself rushing to the Israeli authorities, not about the deaths but to apologise for the warrant.

A dramatic incident occurred as Livni was about to appear on Israeli television during the invasion. The interviewer Shlomi Eldar recognised a name that appeared on his mobile — Izzeldin Abuelaish, a Palestinian doctor who had given services equally to Israelis and Palestinians. — Dawn/Guardian News Service

Source:http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/uk-helps-israel-evade-international-justice.html

French socialists’ primary race catches public eye

PARIS: It was billed as a fight to the death between egotists: a savage war of vengeful ex-partners, secret pacts, crash-diets and televised slanging matches.

But the French Socialist primary race to choose a leftwing challenger to Nicolas Sarkozy in next year`s presidential election has surprised the nation. The battle has been polite and focused. And, crucially, it also appears to have caught the public imagination – the first live TV debate got better ratings than the country`s hit version of reality cookery show MasterChef.

Francois Hollande, the wise-cracking rural MP and self-styled “Mr Normal”, is favourite to win the first round vote on Sunday. But because the party is making history with an open ballot that allows anyone on the electoral register to have a say – if they pay a euro and sign allegiance to the left – commentators are wary of pre-judging the outcome.

The French left is on a high. It has just won control of the senate for the first time in modern history and polls predict a Socialist win against the beleaguered Sarkozy, whose party and inner circle have been badly damaged by sleaze investigations. But the Socialists, who haven`t won a presidential election since Francois Mitterrand in 1988, are wary of poll leads and know how often power has eluded them at the ballot box.

Hollande, 57, who calls himself the “ordinary guy”, is MP for Correze in south central France and was Socialist party leader until 2008. He has undergone something of a metamorphosis, shedding 15kg and changing from dull portly joker to streamlined, perma-tanned man of ambition who drinks diet coke and rides a moped.

In polls, French voters say he is the most presidential of the six candidates and the most likely to beat Sarkozy. He has said that if the Socialists don`t win the 2012 presidential election the party will die.

Broadly centre-left, his two big themes are major reform of the tax system and stimulation that will provide jobs for France`s depressed, unemployed youth. Unemployment among young people in the country currently stands at around 20 per cent. “The next president has to be someone who inspires confidence. Confidence is the word,” he told his final rally in Toulouse this week.

Behind Hollande in the polls is Martine Aubry, 60, the mayor of Lille. The most recent leader of the party and architect of France`s 35-hour week, she has been portrayed as an “Angela Merkel of the left”, running a broad campaign on social rights emphasising housing, health and education.

Firmly on the left of the party, the former minister has been described as a technocrat and policy-wonk versus Hollande`s political animal. But this week she hit back at Hollande`s consensus-style, centrist politics saying a “soft left” would not beat the “hard right” in France.

Hollande and Aubry share similar ideas on tax reform, shrinking public debt and boosting growth and employment to save the French economy. Before the contest started French voters did not appear to trust the left to deal with the world financial crisis. But a poll this week for business magazine Challenges found people would trust Hollande or Aubry more than Sarkozy if faced with a financial crisis of the magnitude of 2008.

Segolene Royal, the failed candidate in the last presidential election, Hollande`s former partner and mother of his four children, had been predicted to take third place. But she is facing competition from the young outsider Arnaud Montebourg, a lawyer and MP in eastern France whose agenda focuses on anti-globalisation and cracking down on speculation by banks. Another outsider, Manuel Valls, an MP and mayor in the Paris suburbs, is considered to be on the right of the party and has pushed a hard line on spending cuts to tackle France`s public deficit.

The Socialist race was thrown wide open in May when the one-time favourite Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested in New York on charges of attempting to rape a hotel maid. The criminal case against him was dropped but his presidential hopes for 2012 are over; he still faces a civil case in New York and another accusation of attempted rape in France.

If no clear winner emerges on Sunday, a second round run-off between two candidates will take place a week later.— Dawn/ Guardian News Service

Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/french-socialists-primary-race-catches-public-eye.html

Sarah Palin will neither run for presidency nor avoid spotlight

WASHINGTON: Conservative diva Sarah Palin won`t appear on the 2012 presidential ballot but will remain on the national stage, revealing in her star power as the race to the White House heats up, analysts say.

The 2008 vice presidential candidate and Tea Party superstar put to rest months of speculation this week when she said she would not seek to replace President Barack Obama but vowed to remain his bugbear.

“I will continue driving the discussion for freedom and free markets, including in the race for President,” Palin said in a statement Thursday, in which she also vowed to help Republican congressional candidates.

“We must reduce tax burdens and onerous regulations that kill American industry, and our candidates must always push to minimize government to strengthen the economy and allow the private sector to create jobs,” she added.

But some experts believe Palin — who stepped down as governor of Alaska in 2009 after just two and a half years — is more interested in the fame and money of media stardom than the drudgery of day-to-day politics.

“I don`t think she was really interested in running because it`s just too much work. I think she made the right decision,” said Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.

“What we don`t know and what will be interesting to watch is, now that she passed the point of flirting for the position, whether she can retain her cachet, her star quality, and do what she`s been doing, what (she) likes so much, which is giving a lot of speeches and making a lot of money.”

“My guess is that her cachet is going to decline.”

In the three years since she burst onto the national stage as Senator John McCain`s surprise running mate, Palin has become a paid contributor on Fox News, a highly sought-after public speaker and a bestselling memoir-author.

For months she had stoked speculation about her plans with a campaign-like bus tour, a private dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and a highly publicised appearance at a Washington motorcycle rally.

But her approval ratings have slid during her time in the spotlight, and a McClatchy-Marist poll last month found that 72 per cent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents did not want her to run.

A Quinnipiac poll this week found Palin had just nine per cent support among the Republican candidates, less than half the 22 per cent enjoyed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the current front-runner.

“I think she measured the field and, being realistic, she must have realised the extreme difficulty of securing the nomination,” said Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution, a Washington, DC think tank.

“She knows how much you need in terms of staff, in terms of raising money.

It`s a big business. She was just simply too late to create the infrastructure she would have needed to run.”

John Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont-McKenna College, said polls had long shown “that a lot of Republicans didn`t want her to run and wouldn`t support her”.

“But by holding open the possibility of a presidential race she managed to increase public attention, and Sarah Palin loves public attention.”

Few expect Palin to have a major effect on the campaign, even if she endorses one of the candidates.

“I don`t think she`ll be a major influence. She`ll make a lot of media appearances and become even wealthier than she already is,” Pitney said.

Palin`s announcement came two days after New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, another popular Republican, also said he would not run, virtually ensuring that the roster of Republican candidates is set.

And with months to go before the first crucial nomination contests, the Quinnipiac poll found that 18 per cent of Republican voters still haven`t chosen a candidate, indicating that the race is still wide open.

Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/09/sarah-palin-will-neither-run-for-presidency-nor-avoid-spotlight.html

Mourners shot at Tamo funeral, Syria dissidents meet

Syrian security forces killed at least two mourners and wounded several others when they fired on the funeral of murdered Kurdish opposition figure Meshaal Tamo on Saturday, activists said.

Dissidents, meanwhile, lobbied in Cairo for recognition of their newly formed opposition front, the Syrian National Council (SNC), of which Tamo was a member, and on a day which saw 10 deaths reported across Syria.

Two people were killed in the shooting on the funeral procession for the slain Kurdish leader in the city of Qamishli, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told AFP, adding that several others were wounded.

The funeral for Tamo, who was gunned down on Friday in Qamishli in the north, became a mass rally with more than 50,000 demonstrators calling for the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, activists said.

Tamo founded the liberal Kurdish Future Party, which considers Kurds an integral part of Syria, and had been recently released after three and a half years in prison.

His killing also sparked indignation abroad.

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton firmly condemned the murder "in the strongest terms," a statement issued on her behalf said.

It added that Tamo's death "follows other targeted assassinations in the past days, which are totally unacceptable.

"These appalling crimes further add to the EU's grave concern over the situation in Syria. All those responsible for and complicit in these crimes must be held accountable."

In Beirut, 50 activists gathered outside the Syrian embassy to demand Assad's departure, and in Vienna 11 people were arrested overnight for invading Damascus's embassy and demonstrating on a balcony.

Police in London arrested seven protesters outside the Syrian embassy, including three men who climbed onto the roof and waved the Kurdish flag.

The United States on Friday charged that Assad's regime was escalating its tactics against the opposition with bold attacks on its leaders, and France said it was "shocked" by the news of Tamo's murder.

Syria closed one of its border gates with Turkey and barred Turks from entering Syria following the Qamishli clashes, Anatolia news agency reported.

Turks were not allowed to enter Syria from the border gate in Nusaybin city in southeast Turkey, just a few kilometres (miles) from Qamishli, local governor Murat Girgin told Anatolia.

The Local Coordination Committees inside Syria, meanwhile, accused Assad's regime of trying to "physically eliminate" opposition figures and "taking advantage of the laxity of the international community."

The official SANA news agency reported "the assassination" of Tamo and said he was killed "by gunmen in a black car who fired at his car."

Elsewhere Saturday, cell phone and landline communications were cut in Qusayr near the central city of Homs, raising fears of a military operation after checkpoints were set up and tanks deployed, the Observatory said.

It reported one killed by security forces in Homs and another three in Hama, and said that the bodies of two people who had been arrested were returned to their families.

In addition to the two killed at the Tamo funeral, two people were killed and 10 others wounded when security forces opened fire at a funeral for three people shot dead in Douma near Damascus on Friday, the rights group added.

The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child has reported that at least 187 children have died in Syria among the estimated total of more than 2,900 people killed since Syria launched its brutal crackdown on dissent in mid-March.

In a rare show of diplomatic support, the foreign ministers of Venezuela and Cuba are to lead a delegation of leftist Latin American states to meet Assad on Sunday, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro said.

Syrian dissidents, meanwhile, were in Cairo where the Arab League has its headquarters to lobby for recognition of the SNC.

Yasser Najjar, a member of the delegation, told official Egyptian news agency MENA the delegation sought support for the recognition of the SNC, after which it would meet to elect a leadership.

Another 90 members of Syria's opposition gathered in Stockholm for a strategy meeting.

Russia has said it will host opposition figures next Tuesday after President Dmitry Medvedev unexpectedly piled pressure on Damascus to implement reforms announced by Assad.

"If the Syrian leadership is unable to undertake these reforms, it will have to go. But this is something that has to be decided not by NATO or individual European countries but by the people and leadership of Syria," he said.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/50-000-syrians-rally-kurdish-leader-slain-094936203.html

More Syria deaths as dissidents urge Assad isolation

DAMASCUS: Thirty-eight people were killed in clashes in two days in northwest Syria, a rights activist said on Sunday, as dissidents meeting in Brussels called for the isolation of President Bashar al-Assad.

“Thirty-eight people were killed in shootings in the region of Jisrash Shughur, 10 yesterday and 28 today,” Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP.

The updated toll includes six members of the Syrian security forces.

Rahman earlier gave a toll of 25 – 19 civilians and six security agents – but warned that number could rise as military and security forces continued operations in the northwest Idlib province.

Residents of the central city of Hama, where at least 53 people were reported killed during anti-regime protests on Friday, said nearly 100,000 people were staging a protest during a three-day strike that began on Saturday.

On Saturday, an activist in Jisrash Shughur said “security forces opened fire to scatter more than 1,000 demonstrators protesting after the funeral of a civilian killed on Friday” in protests at the nearby village of Has.

Syria’s official SANA news agency reported at the time that “a member of the army was killed and a policeman injured in clashes” in Jisrash Shughur.

“Armed groups attacked a police station and military barracks in the area” and one assailant was killed, SANA said.

Rights groups say more than 1,100 civilians have been killed and at least 10,000 arrested in Syria since protests erupted in mid-March.

Damascus insists that the unrest is the work of “armed terrorist gangs”backed by Islamists and foreign agitators.

Syria has freed more than 450 political prisoners and prisoners of conscience since Tuesday as part of a general amnesty announced by Assad, Rahman told AFP on Sunday.
Most of the released are Islamists or Kurds, he added.

Syrian Prime Minister Adel Safar, meanwhile, ordered the creation of a committee tasked with drafting a law on political parties, SANA reported.

The current constitution stipulates that the ruling Baath party is “the leader of state and society” and political pluralism has been at the forefront of demands by pro-reform dissidents.

In Europe, Syrian opposition activists urged the international community to increase pressure on Assad and called for an independent investigation into his regime’s deadly crackdown.

The roughly 200 activists gathered in Brussels also said charges should be laid against those responsible for violations of human rights in the repression, and cases brought before the International Criminal Court.

“There needs to be more pressure on the regime,” organisers of the Brussels meeting said in a statement.

“It is very important to impose diplomatic isolation on the Syrian regime, and to not allow it to be represented in international bodies,” added the grouping, called the National Coalition of Support for the Syrian Revolution.

The European Union and the United States have already imposed sanctions on Assad and his inner circle.

The coalition dismissed as a “farce” Assad’s creation of a body tasked with creating a national dialogue.

A final resolution from the Brussels meeting announced the creation of a commission to evaluate human rights violations by the regime with the purpose of laying charges and sending cases to the International Criminal Court.

It said the coalition also wanted to “communicate with international organisations with the aim of coming up with a resolution condemning the violence by the Syrian regime.”

At a similar meeting in the Mediterranean resort of Antalya in Turkey on Wednesday and Thursday, opposition groups urged Assad’s immediate resignation and the holding of parliamentary and presidential elections within a year.

Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, meanwhile, made a brief visit to the United Arab Emirates where he met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed al-Nahayan.

“The demands of reform and the need for stability can go hand in hand as they can be reconciled,” the official WAM news agency reported Sheikh Mohammad as saying.

Source: http://www.dawn.com/2011/06/06/more-syria-deaths-as-dissidents-urge-assad-isolation.html